Market context
Premarket (9:00 AM)
$216.29
+$5.15 · +2.44% vs Friday
Friday close
$211.14
Friday range $211.13 – $217.86
52-week high (as of 1 Jun)
$236.54
Hit May 14, 2026
VIX
15.32
–2.67% · complacency zone
S&P 500 futures
+0.17%
7,608 · 9th week of gains
Oil (Brent)
$94.10
+3.3% · US–Iran strikes
⚡ Active catalyst — Computex 2026 · Jensen Huang keynote
Nvidia unveiled the
RTX Spark Superchip at Computex Taipei this morning. Huang:
"This reinvention of the computer is as big a deal as the reinvention of the phone into what we now know as the smartphone." NVDA +2.4% premarket.
IBM +12%, ServiceNow +10% riding the AI PC wave.
Intel –5.8%, Qualcomm –9.6% as the losers. Nasdaq-100 futures +0.34%. Oil +3.9% on fresh US–Iran weekend strikes — headline risk is live but market is looking through it for now.
Setup A · recommended
5-minute open scalp · target $217.86 → $220
Price ladder — key levels
R2 · wall
$220.00
Round number · full exit if reached
R1 · TP1
$217.86
Friday session high · first real wall · sell half here
Entry zone
$215–$216.50
Premarket consolidation · VWAP anchor at open
Now (9 AM)
$216.29
Premarket · watch first 60 seconds after open
Support S1
$213.36
Predicted fair open · volume support
Support S2
$211.14
Friday close · thesis invalidated below here
Hard stop
$213.50
Below premarket range low · exit immediately, no debate
↑ Bull scenario — go long
TriggerOpens ≥$216 · holds 60s
Entry$216.00 – $216.50
TP1 (half position)$217.86 · +$1.36–1.86
TP2 (remainder)$220.00 · +$3.50
Stop$213.50 · –$3.00
R:R1:0.45 → 1:1.17 (entry $216.50)
Catalyst + 9-week rally (no tested probability behind this)
↓ Bear scenario — avoid
Only trade ifClean break below $213
TP$211.14 (Friday close)
Stop$215.00 above
R:R1:0.9 — marginal
VerdictDo not short this
Shorting into a fresh catalyst = higher risk (no tested probability)
Open rules — non-negotiable
⏱Wait 60 seconds. Do not click buy at the bell. Watch the first candle close — gap-and-crap reversals happen in the first 30 seconds.
◈VWAP is your guide. If price opens above premarket VWAP (~$216) and holds for 2 candles, the long is on. Drops below immediately → step aside.
✕$213.50 stops everything. If NVDA prints $213.50, close the trade. No averaging. No hoping. Out.
✓Take partial at $217.86. Sell half at Friday's high. Move stop to breakeven on the rest. Ride toward $220 only if volume is expanding.
⌛Exit by 9:35 regardless. If it hasn't moved in 5 minutes, the setup failed. Close and walk away. Do not convert a scalp into a hold.
Position sizing — $200 account · 1–2% target
Account size$200.00
Max risk (1% of account)$2.00
Stop distance ($216 → $213.50)$2.50 per share
Size used in this example (risking exactly $2.00 would be 0.67 shares)0.8 shares (eToro fractional)
Position value~$173 (0.8 × $216.50)
Scalp: all 0.8 shares sold at TP1 ($217.86 – $216.50)+$1.09
Scale-out alternative: 0.4 sh at TP1 +$0.54, then 0.4 sh at TP2 ($220 – $216.50)+$1.40
Total, half out at each target+$1.94 · +0.97% account
If stopped at $213.50 (0.8 sh × $3.00)–$2.40 · –1.20% · account = $197.60
Setup B · different trade — different rules
Swing trade to $234 · 3–7 day hold
⚠ Target conflict — $234 requires a completely different plan
$234 is $17.71 above current price — an 8.2% move from $216.29. The ATH is $236.54, only $2.54 above your target. Holders from the May 14 top may sell near that level (possible overhead supply). This is a swing trade measured in days, not a 5-minute scalp. Do not mix the two: buying for a scalp and then holding because it hasn't hit $234 yet is how a planned $2 loss becomes a $15 loss when a headline drops at 2 PM.
Where $234 sits relative to ATH
52w Low $135
Now $216 (about 80% of the 52-week range)
Target $234
ATH $236.54
Walls between $216 and $234
$217.86
Friday session high. Sellers may be waiting here (not known). Must close above this on day 1.
Wall 1
$220.00
Round-number psychological resistance. Needs strong follow-through volume to breach.
Wall 2
$236.54
All-time high (May 14). Buyers above $234 would be at a loss. Possible overhead supply — your $234 target sits directly in this zone.
ATH ceiling
Macro
US–Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. Oil +3.9%. Geopolitical headline risk is live every night you hold. An escalation could gap the price down at the open.
Overnight risk
↑ Swing long — $234 plan
Entry~$216 at open
Target$234.00
Distance+$18 · +8.3%
Stop$211.00 (Friday close)
Stop distance–$5.00 per share
Shares (risk $2.00)0.4 shares only
Hold period3–7 days
Profit if target hit+$7.20 · +3.6% account
Overnight exposureYES — Iran/oil/macro
R:R = 1:3.6 is excellent IF you can hold and accept gaps
Day-by-day conditions to keep holding
Day 1Must close above $217.86
Day 2Must close above $220
Day 3–5Volume must stay above avg
Stop trailMove up with each day's low
Exit triggerAny close below prev day low
News to watchIran ceasefire update daily
Ex-div dateJun 4 (Thu) · –$0.25/share
Next earningsAug 26, 2026
If Day 1 closes below $217.86 → exit. Thesis failed.
Choose one — do not mix them
A.
Scalp (Setup A). Buy ~$216, sell at $217.86, exit by 9:35. Hit your 1% target on $200, protect the account, log the win. Clean and done in 5 minutes.
B.
Swing to $234 (Setup B). Buy at open with 0.4 shares, stop at $211, hold 3–7 days, accept overnight Iran/oil risk. Only if Day 1 closes above $217.86, otherwise exit.
✕
Do not start with Setup A intent and then hold because $234 hasn't been hit. A planned $2 loss becomes a $15 loss if a headline drops while you're waiting.
Update · 10 Nov 2026 · NVDA snapshot
NVDA closed $181.60 on 5 Nov 2026, about 9.3% below the $200.13 level on the page's reference date (52-week range reported $164.27–$243.37). Next earnings: 17 Nov, results about 1:20 pm PT and conference call 2 pm PT (NVIDIA announcement of 28 Oct). The 1 June entry, stop and target levels above are not updated and should not be read as current. NVDA closed at $168.80 on 10 Nov 2026, down 5.53% ($9.87) on the day (checked by the author against a live quote; other data feeds differ by a few cents). Reported driver: on 8 Nov NVIDIA’s board announced an independent inquiry overseen by independent directors with outside counsel. The statement (investor.nvidia.com) says: “the Board has no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised.” Some analysts trimmed price targets ahead of the 17 Nov earnings (Citi and Wells Fargo cuts reported by Benzinga; bank research not seen). Details beyond the board’s own statement are unconfirmed press reports and are deliberately not repeated here. Prices must be re-checked before any use.
Corrections to the 1 Jun setup above (10 Nov 2026)
Arithmetic fixed in place: the example mixed $216.00 and $216.50 entries. At a $216.50 entry and $213.50 stop, 0.8 shares risks $2.40 (not $2.00); selling half at each target earns $1.94 (not $2.49, which counted 0.8 + 0.4 shares); reward/risk is 0.45 and 1.17 (not 0.7 and 1.4); $216.29 sits about 80% of the way from the $135 low to the $236.54 high (not 60%).
Still unresolved, so do not treat the rules as tested or executable as written: “60 seconds”, “2 candles” and “exit by 9:35” have no defined candle interval (with 5-minute candles, two candles ends after 9:35); the setup assumes stop and target orders, but order types vary by broker, region and product, so confirm what your account supports (a reported eToro US help page says stock stop-loss and take-profit orders are not offered there); stops do not guarantee the fill price; and nothing here is a win rate or tested probability.
Update · NVDA headline risk · what is reported
Confirmed by the company (8 Nov): the board opened an independent inquiry, and CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged marital infidelity in a message to employees. Reported, not established: press reports (Reuters, 10 Nov) say the relationship was with a woman linked to Chinese intelligence, that it aided about $7.5 billion of chip shipments to China, that the FBI is looking into it, and that the president was briefed. A 5 Nov House committee letter asking Huang to brief Congress cites public reporting for the intelligence link and does not make a finding. The board says it has no reason to believe national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised. No regulator or company filing I found confirms the shipment or FBI details, and I have not read the full Reuters report. Treat these as allegations under inquiry. This is a news summary, not a view on whether they are true and not a trade signal.
Background · why US–China technology tension matters (context, not a finding)
Open questions to watch: Will the board inquiry or any regulator publish findings, and when? Will Congress hold the briefing requested in the 5 Nov committee letter? Will the 17 Nov earnings call address the inquiry and China export rules? Will US export controls toward China change, and how would that affect NVDA’s China sales?
Why the topic is bigger than one company: US restrictions on dealing with China include the Wolf Amendment (since 2011, limits NASA’s bilateral work with China) and chip export controls, among many other issues. One way to read them is as part of a broader loss of trust and information between rival powers. That reading is an interpretation, not a finding. Amy J. Nelson, The Arms Control Paradox (Stanford University Press), argues that high uncertainty makes cooperation both more needed and harder; it does not discuss the Wolf Amendment or export controls.
China-related works cited in its introduction: David Logan, “The Dangerous Myths About China’s Nuclear Weapons” and “Hard Constraints on China’s Nuclear Forces” (War on the Rocks); Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley Jr., “Russian and Chinese Nuclear Modernization Trends” (Defense Intelligence Agency, 2019); Kashin and Raska, “Countering the U.S. Third Offset Strategy” (RSIS, 2017); Bob Work, “The Third U.S. Offset Strategy and its Implications for Partners and Allies” (2015); Dennis Gormley, Missile Contagion (2010); Acton, “Hypersonic Weapons Explainer” (Carnegie, 2018). Titles only, not endorsements.
Update · Anthropic IPO · what to watch (information only)
S-1 filed publicly 26 Oct 2026 on SEC EDGAR; proposed Nasdaq ticker ANT (a proposed symbol, not trading). Amended S-1 of 10 Nov: 825 million shares at $70–$78, plus a 123.75 million-share underwriter option. Pricing about 18 Nov and first trade about 19 Nov are press-reported expectations (Yahoo, citing CNBC), not confirmed in the filing; no final pricing prospectus (424B) had been located as of 10 Nov. Dates can move. The relevance to NVDA is sentiment and AI-capex news flow, not a trade signal. No entry, stop or target is given for ANT or NVDA here. Read the filings and exchange notices directly.
Other issues in the same window
| Issuer | Reported status |
|---|
| SpaceX (SPCX) | Listed on Nasdaq 12 Jun 2026 (IPO price $135; reported debut close $160.95, +19.22%); IPO closed 15 Jun. Data feeds showed about $143 on 10 Nov; check a live quote. |
| Cerebras (CBRS) | Listed on Nasdaq mid-May 2026 (priced at $185; IPO closed 15 May). |
| SK hynix (SKHY) | US listing completed; Nasdaq debut 10 Jul 2026. |
| OpenAI | Confidential S-1 submission announced by the company on 8 Jun 2026; a 2027 IPO is prospective, with no firm date. |
| Databricks | CEO said in June that a 2026 IPO is off; no replacement date. |
| Kraken (Payward) | Confidential filing confirmed by the company in Nov 2025; a delay to 2027 is reported, not company-confirmed. |
| Discord | Confidential IPO filing reported (Jan 2026, Bloomberg); no listing date found. |
| Revolut | CEO favors a US primary listing; October reporting put an IPO at least a year away. |
| Plaid | Preliminary talks with banks reported in July; no timetable. |
| Monzo | No listing timetable found; latest reporting concerns private fundraising. |
| Oura | Public S-1/A filed 21 Sep; the company postponed its IPO on 29 Sep 2026 citing market uncertainty (company release). |
Status as of 10 Nov 2026, cross-checked by two models against company releases, SEC and Nasdaq notices where available (SpaceX, Cerebras, SK hynix, OpenAI, Kraken filing, Oura). Databricks, Discord, Revolut, Plaid, Monzo and the Kraken delay rest on press reports. Not investment advice; the author is not a licensed advisor.
Session notes
No outcome or execution record is logged on this page.
Educational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss, and most people lose money. Hypothetical or simulated results are not a forecast. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.