Market context
Premarket (9:00 AM)
$216.29
+$5.15 · +2.44% vs Friday
Friday close
$211.14
Friday range $211.13 – $217.86
52-week ATH
$236.54
Hit May 14, 2026
VIX
15.32
–2.67% · complacency zone
S&P 500 futures
+0.17%
7,608 · 9th week of gains
Oil (Brent)
$94.10
+3.3% · US–Iran strikes
⚡ Active catalyst — Computex 2026 · Jensen Huang keynote
Nvidia unveiled the
RTX Spark Superchip at Computex Taipei this morning. Huang:
"This reinvention of the computer is as big a deal as the reinvention of the phone into what we now know as the smartphone." NVDA +2.4% premarket.
IBM +12%, ServiceNow +10% riding the AI PC wave.
Intel –5.8%, Qualcomm –9.6% as the losers. Nasdaq-100 futures +0.34%. Oil +3.9% on fresh US–Iran weekend strikes — headline risk is live but market is looking through it for now.
Setup A · recommended
5-minute open scalp · target $217.86 → $220
Price ladder — key levels
R2 · wall
$220.00
Round number · full exit if reached
R1 · TP1
$217.86
Friday session high · first real wall · sell half here
Entry zone
$215–$216.50
Premarket consolidation · VWAP anchor at open
Now (9 AM)
$216.29
Premarket · watch first 60 seconds after open
Support S1
$213.36
Predicted fair open · volume support
Support S2
$211.14
Friday close · thesis invalidated below here
Hard stop
$213.50
Below premarket range low · exit immediately, no debate
↑ Bull scenario — go long
TriggerOpens ≥$216 · holds 60s
Entry$216.00 – $216.50
TP1 (half position)$217.86 · +$1.36–1.86
TP2 (remainder)$220.00 · +$3.50
Stop$213.50 · –$2.50
R:R1:0.7 → 1:1.4
Catalyst + 9-week bull run = high probability setup
↓ Bear scenario — avoid
Only trade ifClean break below $213
TP$211.14 (Friday close)
Stop$215.00 above
R:R1:0.9 — marginal
VerdictDo not short this
Shorting into a fresh catalyst = low probability, high risk
Open rules — non-negotiable
⏱Wait 60 seconds. Do not click buy at the bell. Watch the first candle close — gap-and-crap reversals happen in the first 30 seconds.
◈VWAP is your guide. If price opens above premarket VWAP (~$216) and holds for 2 candles, the long is on. Drops below immediately → step aside.
✕$213.50 stops everything. If NVDA prints $213.50, close the trade. No averaging. No hoping. Out.
✓Take partial at $217.86. Sell half at Friday's high. Move stop to breakeven on the rest. Ride toward $220 only if volume is expanding.
⌛Exit by 9:35 regardless. If it hasn't moved in 5 minutes, the setup failed. Close and walk away. Do not convert a scalp into a hold.
Position sizing — $200 account · 1–2% target
Account size$200.00
Max risk (1% of account)$2.00
Stop distance ($216 → $213.50)$2.50 per share
Shares to risk exactly $2.000.8 shares (eToro fractional)
Position value~$173 (0.8 × $216.50)
TP1 hit — 0.8 shares × ($217.86 – $216.50)+$1.09
TP2 hit — 0.4 shares × ($220 – $216.50)+$1.40
Total if both TPs hit+$2.49 · +1.25% account ✓
If stopped at $213.50–$2.00 · account = $198
Setup B · different trade — different rules
Swing trade to $234 · 3–7 day hold
⚠ Target conflict — $234 requires a completely different plan
$234 is $17.71 above current price — an 8.2% move from $216.29. The ATH is $236.54, only $2.54 above your target. Every holder from the May 14 top is sitting on a loss and will sell near that level (overhead supply). This is a swing trade measured in days, not a 5-minute scalp. Do not mix the two: buying for a scalp and then holding because it hasn't hit $234 yet is how a planned $2 loss becomes a $15 loss when a headline drops at 2 PM.
Where $234 sits relative to ATH
52w Low $135
Now $216 (60%)
Target $234
ATH $236.54
Walls between $216 and $234
$217.86
Friday session high. Many limit sell orders parked here. Must close above this on day 1.
Wall 1
$220.00
Round-number psychological resistance. Needs strong follow-through volume to breach.
Wall 2
$236.54
All-time high (May 14). Every buyer above $234 is underwater. Massive overhead supply ceiling — your $234 target sits directly in this zone.
ATH ceiling
Macro
US–Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. Oil +3.9%. Geopolitical headline risk is live every night you hold. Any escalation gaps you down at open.
Overnight risk
↑ Swing long — $234 plan
Entry~$216 at open
Target$234.00
Distance+$18 · +8.3%
Stop$211.00 (Friday close)
Stop distance–$5.00 per share
Shares (risk $2.00)0.4 shares only
Hold period3–7 days
Profit if target hit+$7.20 · +3.6% account
Overnight exposureYES — Iran/oil/macro
R:R = 1:3.6 is excellent IF you can hold and accept gaps
Day-by-day conditions to keep holding
Day 1Must close above $217.86
Day 2Must close above $220
Day 3–5Volume must stay above avg
Stop trailMove up with each day's low
Exit triggerAny close below prev day low
News to watchIran ceasefire update daily
Ex-div dateJun 4 (Thu) · –$0.25/share
Next earningsAug 26, 2026
If Day 1 closes below $217.86 → exit. Thesis failed.
Choose one — do not mix them
A.
Scalp (Setup A). Buy ~$216, sell at $217.86, exit by 9:35. Hit your 1% target on $200, protect the account, log the win. Clean and done in 5 minutes.
B.
Swing to $234 (Setup B). Buy at open with 0.4 shares, stop at $211, hold 3–7 days, accept overnight Iran/oil risk. Only if Day 1 closes above $217.86, otherwise exit.
✕
Do not start with Setup A intent and then hold because $234 hasn't been hit. A planned $2 loss becomes a $15 loss if a headline drops while you're waiting.
Session notes
No notes yet — add after close.